Foreseeing Polish macro-economy

A projected GDP growth rate of approximately 4% in 2011, and around 5% in the ensuing years, is an ambitious but still viable scenario for the Polish economy.  The forecast is based on the assumption that the positive growth will linger on worldwide, especially in Europe, and it is conditionally dependent on the Polish economic policy that needs to remain realistic, rationale and active. Additionally, the implementation of unpopular but desirable reforms must take place, providing, the reforms are well-prepared and look far ahead in the future.

The governmental projection of the GDP rate growth by 3.5% in 2011 which has been set out in the guidelines of the next year’s budget, is not too lofty but the expected growth rate may be difficult to attain for a number of factors, including those beyond Poland’s control. Still, one has to be aware that the time now is quite challenging as the global crisis weakened the potential of both the recovery and prospective treatment of the global economy. Thus it is safer to exercise caution and take various threats into account.

Fortunately, the financial results of Polish businesses for the year 2009 and the first half of the 2010 are quite satisfactory. Amazingly, gross profitability is even higher now than it used to be in the years preceding the economic slump. Businesses have diminished their excessive inventories and employment and liquidity indicators are high.

In 2008 an excessive appreciation of the zloty had an adverse impact on exports. In 2009 and in the first half of 2010 the floating exchange rate along with the depreciation of the zloty helped exporters to retrieve most of the losses they experienced in 2008 and in the first half of 2009.

A strategy for Poland’s accession to the euro zone is bound to act as a factor stabilizing the exchange rate. It is however important to coordinate monetary and fiscal policies and the National Bank of Poland under the leadership of Professor Marek Belka ought to aid Poland in obtaining the coordination. Prof. Belka supports Poland’s early entry to the euro zone, but he sensibly assesses the requisite conditions that must be met prior to the entry.

To sum up, the Polish economy is still quite competitive over other European countries mainly due to its low labour costs. What is more, innovation policy and the development of human capital endow experts with a positive attitude towards the further well-being of the Polish economy.