In the last 10 years, Poland’s development twice exceeded the EU average (see Chart 22.1), and – according to the European Commision forecasts (see Chart 22.2) – it will keep the momentum in the next years.
The economic forecasts of the EU and its member states are published by the European Commission on a quarterly basis. The most recent publication is available here.
The forecasts are also published by a number other international and independent research institutes. The picture of the nearest future of Poland, which emerges from these reports, is reflected in two examples of economic forecasts: a selection of several important macroeconomic indices from the annual OECD report – Economic Outlook (see Table 22.3), and selected indices from the quarterly forecasts published by one of the most important Polish research institutes – the Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics (GIME) (see Table 22.4).
Chart 22.1.
| Accumulated GDP growth in EU countries in 1995-2005 (%) | |
| Latvia | 81.0 |
| Estonia | 68.7 |
| Luxemburg | 56.8 |
| Lithuania | 54.9 |
| Poland | 40.0 |
| Slovakia | 39.2 |
| Greece | 38.1 |
| Slovenia | 37.4 |
| Spain | 37.3 |
| Hungary | 34.9 |
| Finland | 33.3 |
| Cyprus | 29.5 |
| UK | 28.1 |
| Sweden | 26.0 |
| France | 23.0 |
| Malta | 22.8 |
| Holland | 20.5 |
| EU average | 20.5 |
| Czech Republic | 19.7 |
| Belgium | 19.7 |
| Austria | 17.5 |
| Denmark | 17.0 |
| Germany | 11.2 |
| Italy | 10.4 |
Source: Based on Central Statistical Office statistics, August 2005
Chart 22.2
European Commision forecast: GDP increase (against previous year in %) in Poland
| Years | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
| Poland | 3.5 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.5 |
| EU average | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
Source: Based on the Economic Forecasts Spring 2007 report. The publication is available here.
Table 22.3
| Forecasts for Poland according to OECD (in %) | ||||
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | |
| (percentage change against previous year) | ||||
| Private consumption | 2.0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Government consumption | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Total domestic demand | 2.4 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 |
| Exports of goods and services | 8.0 | 15.1 | 11.0 | 10.1 |
| Imports of goods and services | 4.7 | 15.4 | 12.0 | 10.2 |
| GDP at market prices | 3.6 | 6.1 | 6.7 | 5.5 |
| (basic macroeconomic indices, in %) | ||||
| Consumer price index | 2.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Unemployment rate | 17.7 | 13.8 | 11.2 | 9.7 |
| General government financial balance | -4.3 | -3.9 | -3.2 | -2.4 |
| Current account balance | -1.7 | -2.3 | -2.6 | -2.5 |
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 2006
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/32/20213254.pdf
Chart 22.4
Selected GIME forecasts (in %)
| GDP increase in Poland* | CPI | Unemployment | |
| 2005 | 3,3 | 1,1 | 17,6 |
| 2006 | 6,1 | 1,0 | 14,9 |
| 2007 | 6,0 | 2,3 | 12,1 |
| 2008 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 10.5 |
*change against previous year
Source: GIME, Quarterly Economic Forecasts (II quarter. 2007)
Available in Polish only:
http://www.ibngr.edu.pl/pdf/prognozy/prognozy_07_03.pdf
